Bobby Pulido leads redrawn Texas 15th District as border enforcement costs hit local economy

Bobby Pulido holds a five to six point lead in the redrawn Texas 15th District, according to recent surveys. This polling advantage contradicts the district's official map, which was redrawn in 2025 to provide Republicans with a notional 18 point majority. The shift in support is centered in the Rio Grande Valley, a region where Donald Trump secured approximately 55 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2024. With the midterm elections scheduled for November 3, Democrats are working to consolidate this emerging support base.

The change in sentiment follows a surge in federal immigration enforcement activity. Data from the Deportation Data Project indicates that Texas accounted for roughly one third of all Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests nationwide in July 2026. This share was larger than that of any other state. While border crossings have fallen to their lowest level in decades, the intensity of the crackdown has strained local labor markets. Mario Guerrero, a Mexican American businessman and head of the South Texas Builders Association, reported that an acquaintance's crew of 35 daily workers has shrunk to between four and six individuals.

Guerrero, who voted for Trump three times, plans to support a Democrat in November. He stated that voters were not informed about the extent of the administration's actions. This view aligns with comments from Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen. Villalobos acknowledged that while many residents accept the deportation of criminals, the removal of productive and law abiding citizens is causing friction. Father Roy Snipes, a local clergyman who has served the La Lomita Catholic Chapel for nearly 50 years, told a congregation of about 30 people that there is no good excuse to detain and deport their neighbors.

Pulido, a Tejano singer and two time Latin Grammy winner, has campaigned on economic issues rather than national party affiliation. He told voters, "This isn't New York, this isn't LA." Cost of living concerns remain a primary driver for voters like Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar, who blamed the president for rising prices at a local avocado festival. Baldwin noted, "He is in control of our destiny with all that, and right now he's not doing a very good job."

Republican officials recognize the challenge ahead. Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate in the neighboring 28th District, admitted that national political headwinds are real despite Trump's efforts to break through barriers. Alexis Uscanga, a student volunteer for the Republican campaign, described the midterm elections as purely a game of turnout. The polling suggests that a modest swing back to Democrats could impact races beyond the House seat, potentially putting a US Senate seat in play that Democrats have not won in over 30 years.