Right-Wing Bloc Falls Five Seats Short as Leaders Question Arab Vote

Tension erupted among Israeli right-wing leaders on Tuesday as exit polls indicated a loss for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s alliance. Senior officials issued urgent warnings regarding Arab voter turnout and alleged fraud, claiming that the opposition might seize control of the state. These remarks coincided with a projection that neither major political camp had secured the 61 seats required for a governing majority.

The financial implications of the lagging count are stark. As of Wednesday, with 55 percent of ballots tallied, Netanyahu’s bloc of right-wing and religious parties was projected to win 56 seats. That total leaves them five votes short of the 120-seat Knesset majority. This deficit places Arab-led parties in a pivotal position to determine which side forms the next government, a dynamic both camps are actively managing.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich addressed supporters at his party headquarters in Jerusalem early Wednesday. He dismissed opposition celebrations and vowed to protect the expansion of settlements in the occupied West Bank. Smotrich asserted that his opponents would not reverse what he called a settlement revolution. He specifically declared that Jewish settlements will be established in Gaza, a territory from which Israel dismantled its settlements in 2005.

Netanyahu made similar appeals while voting was still under way. He warned that Arab voters were rushing to polling stations and argued that an opposition victory would threaten the country's Jewish character. He accused three senior figures from the Arab-majority Ra'am party of attempting to steal the election. Police confirmed arrests of three people on suspicion of voter bribery, though no evidence linked them to senior Ra'am leadership. Transportation Minister Miri Regev echoed the theft allegations on X, stating it was either the right or Palestine.

Dov Waxman, a British-American political scientist, observed that Netanyahu is likely to emphasize the illegitimacy of any coalition including Arab parties. Arab political leaders have already condemned the prime minister’s election-day messages as racist. The situation has created a stalemate where the smaller Ra'am party holds the balance of power.

Mansour Abbas, the leader of Ra'am, confirmed he has been approached by both camps. He stated that both Netanyahu’s Likud party and the opposition camp led by Gadi Eisenkot have reached out to him. Eisenkot, a former military chief who heads the Yashar party, is now in direct competition with Netanyahu for Abbas’s support. The final seat count will determine which coalition offers the most viable path to a majority.