Satellites confirm 9,000 hectares of poppies blooming in Balochistan

Satellite data reveals a massive expansion of poppy cultivation in Pakistan's Balochistan province.

The Taliban banned illicit narcotics in Afghanistan in 2022, causing a sharp drop in output. Yet production has not stopped. It has moved across the border. David Mansfield, a UK-based expert on Afghan drugs, says the ban and instability created conditions for widespread planting. He describes the tri-border area as a global center for opium production.

Alcis, a British satellite firm, identified more than 9,000 hectares of poppy crops in Balochistan. The fields are concentrated in the districts of Loralai and Killa Abdullah. Mansfield wrote an August report based on this imagery and farmer interviews. He warns that cultivation could climb further in 2027. This would boost heroin supplies and generate income for armed groups. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime calls Pakistani production marginal but acknowledges spillover effects. Islamabad denies the scale of the crop and says it destroys what it finds.

Local officials and residents describe a system of bribes and protection. Abdul Qahar Wadan, a former National Assembly member from Killa Abdullah, claims senior military officials back the farms. Monawar Hussain, the district chief administrative officer, rejected that claim. He said cultivation declined after last year's eradication campaign. Alcis 2026 imagery shows no clear evidence of destruction. An anonymous farmer in Killa Abdullah said growers pay intermediaries to bribe authorities. When media attention rises, growers sometimes plant on barren land so officials can destroy the crop and show results. Lala Jan Kakar, a resident, said drought and floods killed fruit farms. Poppies offer higher income and demand.

Afghan farmers from Kandahar and Helmand provinces are leasing land in Pakistan. They bring capital and expertise. Kakar said they invest millions of rupees in solar-powered wells. They share profits with local landowners. Poppies can be harvested twice a year. Many farmers doubled their planted area in 2026. Mansfield calls this a stark indication of higher 2027 levels. A similar pattern exists in Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan province. Afghan farmers work there as tenants and sharecroppers. Satellite images show extensive fields using drip irrigation. This costly investment suggests growers expected low risk of eradication in late 2025.

Iranian authorities have been preoccupied with the war against the United States and Israel since late February. They have not destroyed the 2026 crop. Experts expect cultivation to rise in 2027 as the economy weakens. Separatist insurgency in the province is also intensifying. Mansfield notes a shift from mixed farming to large-scale poppy monoculture in these border regions.

Cultivation is also rebounding inside Afghanistan. Badakhshan Province accounts for half of national output. Farmers there defy the ban due to drought and debt. Southwestern cultivation almost doubled between 2025 and 2026. Crops are hidden in wheat fields and behind walls. A Taliban directive now bars home searches without a court order. Mansfield warns this concession may signal tolerance. He predicts a dramatic rise in Afghan production in 2027. Armed groups compete for tax revenues from the trade and related cross-border activities.