1,000 drones: The scale of Iran's push to make Iraq a frontline

Iran has conducted more than 1,000 drone and missile strikes on the Kurdistan Region, a figure that illustrates the intensity of the conflict as Baghdad and Tehran seek to transform Iraq into a primary battlefield. This surge in activity follows the United States withdrawal of its forces on September 30, a deadline that had been negotiated over several years. The recent escalation suggests that despite the American departure, the region remains a focal point for the broader struggle between Washington and Tehran.

The latest developments center on suspicions regarding two storage sites in Iraq. Sources cited by Asharq Al-Awsat indicate that Iraqi authorities believe Israel was behind attacks on these locations last week. The sites reportedly held shoulder-fired air defense systems of Chinese origin that were supplied by Tehran. While the specific model of the weapon system was not identified, the timing of the strikes is notable. They occurred shortly after the shipments arrived, suggesting a targeted effort to neutralize new capabilities before they could be fully deployed.

The reporting highlights the involvement of the Popular Mobilization Forces, an umbrella organization that includes numerous Iranian-backed militias alongside Iraqi government paramilitary units. An explosion on October 17 at a PMF base in Baghdad's East Canal area further complicated the narrative. The PMF initially described the incident as an accident, and the government promised an investigation. However, the newspaper noted that the blast hit a stockpile of obsolete ammunition and injured five people. More than a week later, authorities have not provided a detailed update, leaving questions about the cause unresolved.

These events follow an earlier incident on October 1, when warehouses linked to Iran-backed groups in and around Baghdad were affected. These stores reportedly contained drones intended for suicide attacks and reconnaissance missions. A security official stated that while the exact nature of the strikes remains unconfirmed, evidence suggests Israeli involvement. This pattern of attacks aligns with a history of Iraqi militias blaming Israel for strikes in 2019 and recent actions near the Syrian border. The conflict has intensified since the US and Israel began airstrikes in February, with Iran actively seeking to leverage its proxies in Iraq.

The stakes extend beyond military engagements to include diplomatic and economic pressures. Most major groups within the PMF, with the exception of the Badr Organization, have been sanctioned by the US as terrorist organizations. A source within the Shi'ite Coordination Framework indicated that ruling party leaders have spent weeks predicting that a renewed war between Washington and Tehran would begin with the destruction of these factions' capabilities. Meanwhile, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a coalition of militias, recently claimed that Iraqi airspace was being violated, adding a layer of complexity to the ongoing tensions.

The situation is further complicated by cross-border dynamics, including a drone attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline that reportedly originated from Iraq's Maysan province. That border crossing has since been closed due to US pressure and Iraqi concerns about trafficking. As the conflict evolves, the connection between Chinese weapons supplies and their movement to Iraq remains a point of contention, though China's Foreign Ministry denied earlier reports of such transfers in July. The cumulative effect of these strikes signals a new phase of regional instability.