Midterm elections: Analysts see third Iran war phase after Nov. 3 vote

Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence officer, stated that a third round of war between the United States and Iran appears almost inevitable after the November 3 midterm elections. He warned that this phase of conflict would be more destructive than the previous two. The former head of military intelligence now works with the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel. He told CBC News that U.S. President Donald Trump faces only bad and worse options in the Persian Gulf. Citrinowicz previously argued that striking the Islamic regime would not cause a change in government but would expand the conflict regionally.

The United States and Israel have already fought two distinct wars against Iran over the last 18 months under the leadership of Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The first conflict started in June 2025 with attacks on Iranian nuclear sites. It ended after 12 days with a fragile ceasefire. Fighting resumed in February following a major U.S. military buildup. Israeli forces struck Iran’s senior leadership during that phase, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Citrinowicz expects the next phase to target Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and communications systems. He specifically identified internet lines running beneath the Strait of Hormuz as likely targets. He also suggested Iran might use its large land army for limited attacks on Gulf states hosting U.S. bases. Kuwait and Bahrain are named as potential locations for these strikes. The goal, according to Citrinowicz, would be to inflict maximum damage on the American economy.

Combat has slowed since the summer truce broke down, but the conflict remains active. The U.S. maintains a blockade on Iranian ports. Iran continues to target commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. These actions have driven up global energy costs. On Thursday, Trump accused Iran of inflating oil prices before the vote on Truth Social. He claimed Iran was "making up fake hits, mines and everything else." A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that vessel attacks are meant to pressure Washington to meet Iranian demands.

Iranian negotiators seek relief from sanctions, reparations for earlier damage, release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have tried to restart talks for weeks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution said the war has pushed Iran’s leadership to double down on revolutionary ideology. She warned that proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah would retaliate against soft economic sites such as airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that Trump lacks a clear goal. He stated that no military knockout punch will force Iran to capitulate.

Western non-governmental organizations report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran. Lebanese media report over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members have been killed, mostly in Iranian strikes on Gulf bases. More than 70 Israelis have died. Deaths have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan, according to The New York Times. It is unclear if Trump will approve the document. Netanyahu has spoken of finishing the job and toppling the Iranian regime. He faces Israeli voters in a close race that could determine his political future.

Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by creating an emergency unity government. The danger lies in political calculations combining with an Iranian development that Netanyahu might inflate to justify an unnecessary attack. Sadjadpour argued diplomacy is not dead but narrowed by Trump’s maximalist aims. He said Iran would compromise only under existential economic pressure and a limited diplomatic exit. He noted that asking Iran to change its identity is unlikely to succeed.