KAN Poll Splits Israeli Blocs

Israeli voters head to the polls on Tuesday for the first legislative election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023. The vote determines the direction of a government grappling with ongoing regional conflicts and deep domestic divisions. No side currently holds the 61 seats required to form a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leads the pro-government bloc, which includes his Likud party, far-right groups Otzma Yehudi and Religious Zionism-Zehut, and ultra-Orthodox parties United Torah Judaism and Shas. The opposition coalition unites four Jewish-led movements. These include Yair Lapid’s Together alliance, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, Yair Golan’s Democrats, and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu.

Final polling data released before a publication ban took effect on Friday indicated a narrow race. A survey by public broadcaster KAN projected 52 seats for the opposition and 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc. The remaining seats belong to unaffiliated parties, primarily the Arab-majority lists Ra’am and the Joint List. Both major coalitions have ruled out partnering with these Arab-led groups for now, increasing the likelihood of a minority government or a repeat election.

Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, stated that secular and liberal factions view this election as the last chance to save Israeli democracy. Voters are demanding accountability for security failures before October 7 and criticizing the ultra-Orthodox military exemption. They also object to Netanyahu’s judicial reforms, which critics argue weaken liberal democratic institutions.

International pressure has increased as several allies sanctioned Israel’s West Bank settlements. Dozens of envoys walked out of Netanyahu’s September 24 address to the United Nations General Assembly. The prime minister faces personal risks as well. He has led Israel for 15 of the last 17 years and stands trial on corruption charges. An ICC arrest warrant for war crimes also applies to him.

Approximately 7.3 million citizens are eligible to vote, including 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Polls suggest Arab turnout could reach 60 percent, potentially securing 15 seats for Arab parties. Campaigners aim for 70 percent turnout, a level not seen in decades. The Supreme Court recently reversed a ban on Ra’am and the Joint List but removed Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh from the race.

Netanyahu claims only his party can prevent a coalition with Arab parties. Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Knesset member Ayman Odeh, argued this strategy could leave Netanyahu as caretaker prime minister if no bloc wins a majority. Roughly three million adults in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem have no vote in choosing the government that controls their borders and legal status.