Moscow Airspace Closures Cut Nine Hours Daily

Flights at Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky and Vnukovo have suspended operations nearly every day this month, with closures reaching nine hours on some dates, the independent outlet Agentstvo reported. The shutdowns follow a stated objective from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said in early September that Ukraine would deny airspace around Moscow and other Russian destinations. Addressing airlines, insurers and travelers, he said, "Russian airspace will become completely unsafe."

Russia's aviation authority, Rosaviatsiya, runs a procedure called the "carpet" protocol that immediately closes airspace over a region if an aircraft violates Russian airspace, if weapons are used or if unidentified objects appear in the sky. Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of Friendly Avia Support, said that "essentially, every drone poses a military threat." He compared the disruption to the Houthis' effect on Saudi airspace and said Ukraine's military capabilities exceed theirs.

Military analyst Jan Matvejev said triggering the protocol requires only simple drones without warheads or long range, and that Ukraine's arms industry can produce hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones a day. He said Russia's air defenses cannot stop them: "If it were possible to shoot them down, they would have done so by now." Laneckij said Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the protocol, increasing risk to civilian flights. Investigators said an Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft hit by a Russian air-defense missile fired against drones killed 38 people on Christmas Day 2024. Matvejev said Russia's air-defense protocol has changed little since then and that a drone collision with an airplane can be serious even without explosives.

Laneckij said foreign airlines' decisions to keep flying to Russia will turn on three factors: the military threat, demand and insurance costs. If insurers rate the risk as very high, premiums could rise sharply and push ticket prices up. Russia's aviation market has contracted as airlines exited the industry, lifting demand for seats on remaining foreign carriers. "Whether they stay or not depends on the price they have to pay for the danger faced," he said.

Ukraine's own airspace has been closed since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Ukrainian forces attacked Pskov airport in the summer of 2023, and drone debris fell on Sochi airport earlier this month. Russia struck Ukrainian airports; in September, Zelenskyy said Kyiv's airport and Boryspil were hit.