Israel Vote: Arab Turnout and Absentee Ballots Leave Coalition Math Unresolved

Turnout crossed 77% in Israel's parliamentary vote on 28 October 2026, but partial counts showed neither Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-led bloc nor Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party reaching the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset. Netanyahu's coalition with ultra-nationalist and ultra-Orthodox parties sat just below the threshold in early returns.

Analysts cautioned those numbers could shift. The counting sequence favored areas with historically strong right-wing support, and a large volume of absentee ballots remained uncounted, mostly from soldiers serving away from home. Final results were not expected for another day or two, the BBC reported.

Netanyahu addressed supporters overnight and claimed a mandate without formally declaring victory. "The right-wing bloc has a clear, decisive majority among the Zionist public, among the Jewish public and all those who support the Jewish state," he said. Eisenkot spoke separately to Yashat party members. "The public has chosen change," he said, adding, "The coalition of failure has lost the people's trust."

Arab-led parties, representing a minority that makes up one-fifth of the population, recorded turnout at or above their previous record. Most Jewish opposition parties campaigned against partnering with Arab-majority lists, citing differences in values. Avigdor Lieberman, a leader within the opposition bloc, said during the campaign he would not sit in a minority government dependent on Arab party support. Mansour Abbas, who heads the smaller Arab list Ra'am, said he wants into the next government and predicted potential partners would be more open to an alliance after the vote. "All politicians in Israel say one thing before elections and speak a different language after elections," Abbas said.

Professor Tamar Hermann, a pollster at the Israeli Democracy Institute, said support for pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu camps remained unchanged from earlier surveys. "People expected that after October 7th, Netanyahu will be down the drain or even toppled but it didn't happen," she said. Netanyahu faces a corruption trial on charges he denies.

Isaac Herzog, Israel's largely ceremonial president, will consult party leaders once final results are submitted next week and ask the candidate most likely to assemble a governing coalition to try. A candidate who cannot secure 61 seats within six weeks can be replaced by another. If no coalition forms, a new election follows in the following months. Netanyahu's government continues in a caretaker role without authority to enact major policy changes. Yaakov Katz, a veteran Israeli journalist, said coalition talks may involve attempts to pull defectors or build a minority government, adding, "it might not work, and it could take weeks or months to see if someone is actually capable of forming a government."