Palestinian blocs projected to hold 12 to 15 Knesset seats as both Israeli camps miss majority

Polls released ahead of next week's election indicate that neither Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition nor the Jewish Israeli opposition bloc will secure the 61 seats required to form a government in the 120-seat Knesset. The balance of power now rests with Palestinian citizens of Israel, who are projected to win between 12 and 15 seats. These seats are split between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List, an alliance of three smaller parties including Ta'al.

The situation has created a mathematical deadlock that both major camps must resolve. Most of the Jewish opposition has publicly ruled out forming a coalition with Arab politicians, while Netanyahu and his allies have campaigned to make such an alliance politically difficult. Campaign posters on the right have used slogans like "It's the right or Palestine" and "Bibi or Tibi," referencing Ahmad Tibi, who heads Ta'al and has served in the Knesset for more than two decades.

Tibi stated that high turnout among the Arab community is a primary tool for removing the current government. "We are determined to do everything in order to bring this government down," he said. However, coalition partners are not new to Israeli politics. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a historic coalition with Naftali Bennett. Netanyahu also once opened coalition talks with Abbas, proving that past promises to avoid Palestinian parties have been broken.

Mohammed, a prospective voter who manages mixed Jewish and Arab staff at a hi-tech company, expects the opposition to change its stance once the results are final. "At the end of the day, everything is mathematics, right? One plus one is two," he said. He is urging friends of all backgrounds to cast their votes to break the tie.

For Palestinian politicians, any alliance remains complicated. Most opposition parties do not call for a two-state solution and strongly oppose a Palestinian state, while supporting the settlement movement in the West Bank. Tibi described his choice as being between "bad and worse," pitting the opposition against Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir.

Fear is driving many Palestinian voters to the polls. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, cited the destruction in Gaza, violence in the West Bank, and rising discrimination inside Israel as central motives. "The biggest motivation is fear," Abu Shehadeh said, noting that voters understand the danger if far-right ministers return to power. Turnout has historically been depressed by distrust of the system, but recent events have shifted that dynamic.

Legal and social factors continue to influence the election. Last month, Israel's supreme court effectively forced Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article regarding the October 7 Hamas-led attacks, a ruling widely criticized for applying different free speech standards. Meanwhile, a motion to disqualify national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over racist language was not upheld. Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group noted that a returning far-right coalition would have a renewed mandate to speed up annexation policies.

The election takes place two days before Kfar Qasim marks the 1956 massacre in which border police killed 49 men, women, and children. Iraqi described the vote as largely about mitigation, noting that Palestinians can see the difference between a right-wing and a far-right government. "There's no clarity about what comes afterwards," Iraqi said.