Texas Midterms: Latino Vote Splits on Immigration and Data Centers

Texas remains statistically tied in the 2026 midterm races, according to a new N+ Univision/YouGov poll.

Conducted from October 13 to 21, 2026, the survey of 1,000 registered voters found a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 points. In the gubernatorial race, Republican incumbent Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa by two points, 48 percent to 46 percent. For the U.S. Senate, Democrat James Talarico holds a five-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton, 50 percent to 45 percent. The generic ballot for the U.S. House shows Republicans ahead by three points, 48 percent to 45 percent.

The data reveals sharp internal shifts within the Latino voting bloc, which accounts for 980 of the total respondents. In the Senate race, Talarico’s support among Latino voters rose from a 27-point lead to a 34-point lead among those under 35. Conversely, his advantage among Latinos over 65 shrank from 13 points to just three. Statewide, Paxton’s lead among voters over 65 widened from 14 points to 24 points. In the gubernatorial contest, Hinojosa’s statewide lead among voters aged 35 to 49 collapsed from 14 points to two points.

Regional geography creates further contrasts. In North Texas, Abbott leads Hinojosa by nearly 10 points among Latino voters. In Central Texas, Democrats hold advantages of approximately 19 to 21 points across all three races. These local patterns suggest the statewide averages mask distinct political environments across the state’s regions.

Immigration enforcement plays a central role in these shifts. Among Latino voters who supported Donald Trump in 2024, 65 percent say they would vote for him again. However, 35 percent express some doubt or regret. Within that doubtful group, support for Talarico rises to 44 percent, compared to just 9 percent among those certain of their 2024 choice. Nearly 60 percent of Trump-backed Latinos who now support Talarico report low trust in ICE, a figure far higher than among those backing Paxton.

Economic concerns also drive voter behavior. Forty-two percent of Latino voters say their household finances are worse than a year ago. Food costs are the primary pressure for 63 percent of this group. When asked for the single most important issue, 27 percent cited jobs and cost of living, while 16 percent named political corruption. Democrats hold a trust advantage on 11 of 12 policy topics, including immigration rights and cost of living. Republicans lead only on border security, with a two-point edge.

Data centers present another point of contention. Forty-eight percent of Latino voters oppose building such facilities in their own communities, compared to 25 percent in favor. Opposition is highest in Central Texas, where nearly 70 percent of Latino voters say their communities have little or no influence over where data centers are built.