Lebanese Shi'ites back state control of weapons

A recent survey challenges the assumption that Hezbollah remains untouchable within its own demographic base.

Data collected in September by Statistics Lebanon reveals a significant shift in opinion. The study polled 800 Lebanese Shi'ites. Results show that 66.4 percent support transferring Hezbollah's weapons to the Lebanese state. Only 29.6 percent want the group to keep its arsenal. Hezbollah has long argued that its weapons are vital for defending the country against Israel.

The poll highlights a strong preference for state sovereignty. Kataeb.org reported that 71.1 percent of respondents said war and peace decisions should belong solely to the state. Just 5.9 percent believed Hezbollah's leadership should play a larger role in the country's future. Confidence in the national military is also high. Approximately 78.5 percent of participants said they trust the Lebanese Armed Forces. A majority, 51.1 percent, named the army as the best institution to guarantee long-term security. Only 16.5 percent chose Hezbollah for that role.

These findings question the group's traditional claim to represent the security interests of the Shi'ite community. However, the picture is not entirely uniform. Some 67.4 percent said Hezbollah failed to meet its goals in the war with Israel or achieved only some of them. A large portion, 42.1 percent, expressed disappointment, anger, or concern about the group's leadership and the conflict's consequences.

Despite these criticisms, trust in the organization remains notable. About 59.5 percent of respondents still expressed some level of trust in Hezbollah. This includes 37.1 percent who reported a great deal of trust. Roi Kais from Israel's public broadcaster KAN noted that Hezbollah's strength persists because of its support networks and status. He argued that the group will remain strong as long as no other entity fills the resulting vacuum.

Previous data tells a different story. A May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International found that 87.5 percent of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah. In that earlier poll, only 7.9 percent supported giving up the group's weapons. More than 90 percent opposed ties with Israel. Researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni cited this data in a June 10 analysis for Israel's Institute for National Security Studies. They suggested that differences in wording or agenda might have shaped the varying results.

Mizrahi and Levanoni argued that Hezbollah's influence relies on its social and economic networks. They also pointed to its political power and the historical marginalization of the Shi'ite community. Intimidation has often discouraged dissent within the group. They believe weakening Hezbollah requires a stronger Lebanese army. They also said Western and Gulf financial support is needed so the state can replace the services Hezbollah provides.

Local signs of wariness are emerging. In the southern city of Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of the Hezbollah-linked financial institution Al-Qard Al-Hassan. They feared the building could be targeted in an Israeli strike. Such branches have been hit in the past. Hezbollah has announced aid for families whose primary homes were destroyed in Beirut and its southern suburbs. Eligible families can receive up to 14,000 dollars. Families elsewhere can receive up to 12,000 dollars.

The group has faced major losses. Hassan Nasrallah was killed in September 2024. A new war broke out in March 2026 and caused heavy destruction in southern Lebanon villages. Whether current discontent turns into political change depends on the state. The Lebanese government must offer security, reconstruction, and economic opportunity to fill the void.